In his You-tube explanatory series "How to enjoy the end of the world" ( HTETEOTW ) Dr. Sidney Smith continues to describe the bare-bones of what he thinks everyone ought to know, in order to understand, accept, and maybe start preparing for some of the big changes that are happening now.
"... Nothing lives that doesn't also die, an outcome guaranteed by the fundamental laws of nature that govern both energy and complexity. Civilizations, including our own, are no exception. ... " - B. Sidney Smith
His Ph.D is in Mathematics, and a summary of his outlook includes this essay in 2012, entitled "All the bunnies in the meadow die". Some of this essay material is re-used in this latest video on Ecological Overshoot. The basic definitions are very clear.
.. to pageThe International Energy Agency forcefully states that the pathway to net zero by 2050 is a very narrow one and requires that no new oil and gas fields get approved.
And yet, despite the Australian public voting for Labor’s pledge to aggressively reduce emissions, on the day after he was sworn in as Australia’s 31st Prime Minister, Albanese was at Kantei in Tokyo making a contrary pledge of “better energy security” for Japan.
Recent Freedom of Information (FOI) releases, and close examination of a mosaic of evidence, have shed new light on who’s been convincing the Government to back away from turning off the gas tap.
The Barossa project is key to the future profits of Santos. The project involves piping gas from the Barossa field north of Darwin for onshore processing. Its output is intended for export to Asia.
In terms of carbon emissions, Barossa is the dirtiest of projects. Some experts have described it as a carbon emission project with LNG as a by-product. To deal with this, the company intends to bury the unwanted CO2 output in the now commercially depleted Bayu-Udan gas field in Timor-Leste waters.
Energy cannibalism, or energy self-use, is the necessity to spend energy in order to extract additional energy from the environment. This publication estimates that by 2020 the production of oil liquids, including Diesel fuel, costs 15.5% of the energy from this high energy quality resource. This fraction is growing at an exponential rate. By 2050, the net-energy fraction will be around half. Unconventional oil liquids are reported as continuously replacing higher quality conventional ones. A review of energy analysis literature and history highlights industry predictions about future supply, and evaluates several models to conservatively predict long term decline of net energy. Global heating by emissions is accelerated by the rise in gross production of oil liquids, peaking maybe in 2035, if no other dynamic factors intervene. There are a lot of caveats and assumptions listed.
For biosphere and climate integrity, and survival of other species, we cannot run out of low cost, net energy fast enough. For economies, declining net energy is the fast disappearance of the temporary carrying capacity of fossil fuels to power all the requirements of sustaining our industrial civilization, and must end our enormous population overshoot of over-consuming humans.
The "Honest Sorcerer", B on substack, presents irrefutable logic that this age of mining must reach an end, as mining ability requires energy and mineral supply, and this declines with depletion. The fully dependent renewable energy transition cannot prevent a global energy and minerals supply crunch. The end of mining brings our all-consuming, destructive industrial civilization, to its natural biosphere-breaking end.
Big overshoot of our extinction cliff edge. Our planet's cooling system has broken. . . . Lest we forget, humanity’s conundrum is an overshoot of nearly every safe environmental boundary that allowed humans to survive and thrive in the last 10,000 years. . . . The absurdity of our response, or lack thereof, is becoming ever more apparent as conditions continue to deteriorate around us. . . . We have already lost more than half, two thirds even, of all life on the planet.
.. to pageNow calibrated with current datasets, an updated Limits to Growth model shows collapse in global industrial output is already happening just about now. Collapse is from resources depletion, particularly oil. Human population reduction will follow later. Persistent pollution is indexed to accumulated industrial CO2 emissions, which will continue grow to badly plague us later.
Global climate models have been underestimating the rates of polar warming. What is missing? This paper says that thin, high polar clouds may be responsible. They form in the stratosphere, with water vapor created from methane breakdown. This amplifies the greenhouse effect of the methane itself.
This nicely authored and credentialed report is the equivalent of firing at point blank range the delusions and ideas that techno-industrial civilization will still be able to "techno-progress" its way out of its multiple self-created predicaments. These predicaments are sometimes called poly-crisis, our ecological overshoot, or in philosophy termed hyperobjects whose multidimensional, time ramifications and detailed interconnections escape the most common and simple political slogans and even "green" favoritism expressed today, which are tightly restricted by politically-correct media control.
For instance this Pallas Ceres report states clearly that a real green new deal is not a renewable energy powered future. The PC report seems to require "healed-minds" concept of changing the current path of our species. This report also seems to imply that without healed minds enabled to give full guidance, our species pathologies will continue their path towards self-destruction, and future survival may just be of the few or (un)lucky.
Techo-Industrial civilization - TIC - has made its temporary escape growth from our biosphere systems ecological constraints, and the only way back to mitigate ongoing mass extinctions, requires TIC degrowth in order to return all life towards its evolutionary dynamics of balance, to allow all life to continue inside systems constraints of our biosphere life support systems.
Also in this PC report, are hopes for spiritual and metaphysical growth of human beings. This seems to be a requirement in order for governments to cooperate in having rational plans for disarming and making safe our TIC systems. According to students of history, cycles of conflicts between elites tend to bring about our own destruction. None of the PC sensible suggestions seem to be on any nations current political agenda.
The report has quite a backing list of referral materials, books and videos, on important anchoring topics, quite a few of which I have encountered previously and can also recommend. I also credit Eric Lee on medium.com for referring this report, and writing an article summary.
The EDO in various states of Australia is fighting approvals for new Coal Mines and Fracking projects. Members of our governments and public service institutions behave as if they have been bought up to serve corporations, and have no decent regard for country, water, climate, people and biosphere. Short term money appears to be all that politicians care about. Here are links to two upcoming legal court campaigns that need your funding help, that the EDO thinks are worth fighting, because our environments are worth defending.
.. to pageParraCAN just signed up for -- "Coalition for Climate Ambition" - initiative by The Australia Institute.
A little bit of climate honesty could go a long way.
Can Juice media give a gut blow to our fossil fuels bound Australian Government? Our "climate leader" politicians are an unbelievable easy target.
"Have we finally broken our favorite planet?"
Global environment appearances can be deceptive, and Australian politicians appear to have collectively sworn not to be deceived by them. Judging by results, COP for climate action are nothing more than yearly fossil fuel corporate trade shows, designed to produce agreements to burn more of their products every year.
Michael Dowd presents a very coherent view of our civilization predicaments. Four awkward truths determine our overall fates. This links to a 55 minute presentation to the Canadian Club of Rome, drawn from years of educational effort in ecological theology.
Yet another federal government budget floods media attention in Australia. Discussions in the media tend to be about small matters of Surplus or Deficit, Taxes and Welfare. Meanwhile our petty domestic politics are overshadowed by a global polycrisis of risks, which keep looming ever larger and nearer, as listed in this World Economic Forum report.
A standard political response to preparing any of these, is the equivalent of filling a bucket with sand, and sticking one's head it. Or to start talking about incremental policy changes, or smearing the opposition party. All elements of this polycrisis are made worse by pushing for continued growth, in population, wealth and consumption. In facing these risks, Australia plans to give up nothing. This is loss aversion and fear of economic collapse. We cannot keep it all.
Notice how "Geoeconomic confrontation" risk drops from near the top, to near the bottom, over the ten years. Keep this in mind when considering that Australia's most expensive future spending plans over the next decades, are for investments in high tech weapons in support of the military industrial complex of the USA, which is rapid social and economic decline.
Notice that "rapid collapse of the USA global military empire" is not included in the risks list. This is because western media deny its existence while at the same time drumming hysterical support for its latest war and weapons business venture.
Alan Urban's "collapsesurvivalsite.com" is made of reinforced conviction. You should best believe its real.
This linked article by Alan Urban provides a comprehensive summary of reasons why our global food systems are rapidly failing, due to climate vulnerability, and harmful unsustainable agriculture technology.
All of which is the end-stage result of our overshoot of our biospheres systems capacity for regeneration. Insect species are rapidly declining in numbers, and so are all their species dependents, such birds and small mammals. The insect pests that feed on our crops are exceptions.
Why are the big nations now arming for war in haste? Why can't they wait for civilization to collapse? Why is Australian government now
wanting to buy expensive, complex USA made, deadly weapons? The "Collapse of Everything" must be accelerating, and political denial has now built up into total panic, hidden by a wall of silence.
A play list of well conceived presentations by Sid Smith, which places our present predicaments in the context of the many cycles of life.
It has been reported that our planet's average energy imbalance - EEI - has increased over the last two decades. Climate models suggest that we are likely to experience this in coming years as a faster rise in average surface temperature anomaly, and increased rate of accumulation of heat in our oceans.
.. to pageIn late 2022, an Office of National Intelligence (ONI) initial climate risk assessment — an election promise of the Albanese government — was distributed to members of the federal cabinet. It addressed external but not domestic climate threats. Since then there has been no government response to, or public communication of, the assessment’s findings. - Renew Economy article by Ian Dunlop and Chris Barrie
There are plenty of commonly available publications about likely future climate impacts, and consequences to Australia. Just because our government refuses to acknowledge them with report releases and appropriate changes of policy, doesn't mean they do not already exist. Also non-release does allow a full and free speculation as to the reports real contents. Future generations are already over-shadowed by the presence of the hyperobject of our global climate bomb.
Infographics about our systems Hyperthreat of climate as a HyperObject. Something beyond our mental, social and political comprehension. Something implied by the term #ClimateBomb
... the hyperthreat of climate change has warlike destructive capabilities that are so diffuse that it is hard to comprehend the enormity of the destruction, nor those responsible for these hostile actions. - Climate Change as a Hyperthreat - Elizabeth G. Boulton
Rupert Read, Ecological Philosopher, projects courage from his strong convictions in a short graphic film below.
A longer presentation on why - this you-tube link. Salter Lecture 2023 -
"The horrible wonderful truth about Climate. Why facing that truth changes everything".
Gas Emissions Craters (GEC) are exploding in Siberia as the permafrost melts - like a teenager coming down with Acne. Major carbon sinks move towards failure around our planet. The Amazon Rainforests is now considered a carbon source. Our overheated oceans may become so choked with heat and carbon dioxide they stop obliging to absorb more of our insults. Such are dangers being faced by all life on this planet, as human industrial civilisation has refused to stop growing. It is all becoming the stuff of biblical "Revelations". One would think our pentacostal prime minister should to Glasgow to lap it up, but no, Australia and the fossil fuel world isn't ready for this.
. . . unless there are immediate rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions that limit warming to close to 1.5° C or even 2° C, the problem will extend “beyond reach” and beyond any chance for some level of control.
NSW nature conservation council needs your support to continue to pressure the NSW government to finally stop the logging destruction of our remaining native forest areas. It can be done. The industry is uneconomic. 91% of timber is from plantations, and it needs to be 100%. We need native forest ecosystems to stop declining and grow in size and health, to enable the survival of the creatures that live in them, including koalas.
I know it is a bitter pill to swallow, but the only real way to slow global warming in any noticeable way is to stop anthropogenic CO2 emissions FOREVER. There are no post-facto technological ‘capture’ or ‘remediation’ techniques that exist now or “could be developed” that would actually work as “silver bullets” of salvation; they would only ‘work’ as money making scams with which to gull those despairing of the ‘loss of easy living.’
- "Notes on Carbon Dioxide in Global Warming, Acidified Oceans, and Weathered Rocks" - Manuel Garcie Jr.
Climate Council Public Petition to sign: To play its fair part in the rapid, sustained reductions required globally, Australia should aim to reduce its emissions by 75% below 2005 levels by 2030, and to net zero by 2035.
Nafeez Ahmed publishes "How to Save the World in 15 Years. PART TWO." The IPCC is politically climate conservative. Climate tipping points are irreversible and evidencing now. Not just the climate. The latest data also suggests that more than half – six out of nine – planetary boundaries appear to have now been crossed by human civilisation.
New is latest IPCC report "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis" The hard work of many, it has fully documented and projected climate past and potential futures, with lots of corroborating detail, numbers and graphs, and improved datasets. Climate science is more certain, errorbars a little smaller. The website "Real Climate" scored a flurry of new posts from notable climate scientists. Future scenario pathways, our warming future, will depend on choices of today's governments and their money and power brokers. Just how much denial will they be allowed to get away with? Chances of scraping under 1.5 C° of warming in the next thirty years depends on keeping with the best "low-emissions scenarios". Nations need to work more on their NDC's, the "Nationally Determined Contributions". Global cooperation needs to come from a willing positive force from home, not a negative arm-twisted condescension imposed externally.
Analysis reveals that “Net Zero 2050” strategies will lock in many decades of unnecessary fossil fuels use well past 2050, with an unsustainable, business-as-usual economic pathway, dangerous “offset” trade-offs, and unacceptable risks of unstoppable climate warming. - Breakthrough - National Centre for Climate Restoration
Simon Michaux, expert on minerals processing, reports on our real system limits for mining of minerals, particularly those required for IT and green technologies. A detailed PDF of same report is available from here.
Robert Hunziker declares we have started the rolling climate apocalypse. Cities, infrastructure and people of fossil fuel civilization are not designed to withstand extreme heat and rapid flooding events. Evolved ecosystems are dying from the advanced human onslaught.
ParraCAN has its first online survey here.
The Coal Industry has Manipulated and Controlled Australia through the Liberal National Party and Murdoch NewsFork for decades, and looks forwards to ruining it while it profits.
Even aiming to stay within the global warming range of 1.5 to 2 degrees C, the earth systems are pushed on a path that takes us to the kind of climate of 3 million years ago, Pliocene or even 50 million years ago, the Miocene. The Holocene, which nutured our civilizations, is over forever.
Right now, to avoid the extreme, conditions of the Miocene, not compatible with human civilization at all, and insure that only Pliocene conditions are reached, a rapid, global exponential decarbonization is required
David Suzuki points out, that a recent climate science paper says there remains only a 5 percent chance of staying below 2 degrees this Century, and we have actually more chance of reaching 6 degrees of warming (10%), than staying below 2 C. So we'ed better get on with it, as a global apex species, because even 2 degrees is not favourable to the long term survival biosphere apex species such as ourselves. Australia is especially singled out for its rigged corporate games in government..
Everything politicians think they know is most certainly wrong for the real world. Global governments fixation on mutual traded, competitive, exponential, fossil fueled growth. This is the worst possible, long term option ever. There is no wriggle out of contract consequences - Making a Hell of Earth. So what is the cause of this collective insanity? Rapid extinction is nature's unthinking plan for a species that collectively destroys its foundational environment.
The Global Carbon Project, which collects and analyses our global carbon behaviour, shows that nearly everybody is misbehaving.
Growth in global carbon emissions in 2018 looks to be around 2%, which is exactly tied to the rate of economic growth (by GDP)
Growth in Gas was the worst at 3.0%, and almost certainly involves a growth in total methane leakage. It is not provable that the rise in global carbon emissions with GDP has produced a similar rise in global well-being.
New record high of carbon dioxide emissions of 37 billion tonnes for 2018, says we are going to fail very badly.
Humanity are still trying to collectively have infinite growth on this finite planet. Here in Australia, our Prime Madman Scott Morrison, keeps defiantly shouting his "Strong Economy" slogan, in the tones of "Resistance is useless", while Australia burns hotter. After Albert Einstein, we could say that only one thing is infinite, and that is human collective stupidity.
Absent any serious form of global self-control, human global demolition will be future choked by several possible natural "Limits to Growth". Given our massed social and technical ingenuity, we might even manage to have several at once. We might escape the global decline in essential heavy fuel oil supply to power our global big machines, or spend all our energies against the inexorable rise in new climate disasters. This is probably already out of our control, as we struggle to keep creating new limits by growing our ongoing demolition of biodiversity and natural sustainability.
If enough people demand it, governments could declare a climate emergency tomorrow, and we could all get on with the job of fixing it.